Data as of
Oct 20, 2026
How to read EconCERF

Two clocks.Four questions.Five minutes.

EconCERF reads the economy and the markets separately, then shows you where they agree and where they do not. This is the route through the platform.

The economy and markets run on different clocks.

Everything on the platform starts from this.

The economy
Moves over months
Today: Expansion, day 153

Economic conditions are measured through growth, employment and inflation data. These figures usually arrive after the period they describe and tend to change gradually, so a shift in the economic cycle takes time to confirm.

Markets
Move every day
Today: Pricing more inflation

Markets move every day. Stocks, rates, commodities and currencies continually reprice expectations. They can react before a change appears in the economic data, but they can also be early, noisy or wrong.

EconCERF keeps the two readings separate. When markets move away from the economic data and stay there, the platform flags the gap as a possible early warning. It is evidence to investigate, not a forecast.

Your five-minute route

The Daily Briefing answers these four questions every evening. Every other page is the evidence behind one of them.

1
Where is the economy?
Which phase of the cycle. Moves over months.
Today
Expansion
Go deeper: Macro Monitor and the six pillars
2
What are markets betting on?
What prices are betting on. Moves over days.
Today
Pricing more inflation
Go deeper: Market State
3
Do markets agree with the data?
Where they agree or differ, pillar by pillar.
Today
Markets ahead on inflation
4
What is each market saying?
What each market is signaling.
Today
Early Stagflation Signal
What you walk away with

Three sentences you can take into the morning meeting.

EconomyThe economy is expanding, 153 days in. Growth is reaccelerating and the labor market is tight, although interest-rate policy is restraining growth.
MarketsMarkets are pricing more inflation, with normal risk-taking.
The gapMarkets are ahead of the economic indicators on inflation.

Every page, by what it tells you

Start with the briefing. Open a page when you want the evidence behind an answer.

Question 1 · The economy

Slow clock · weeks to monthsIn the menu: Economic Intelligence
Macro MonitorOpen →
Which pillars are carrying the reading and which are pulling against it, before you open any single indicator.
Moves over weeks to months, as data is released
The six pillars
Each pillar page shows its reading, every indicator in it, and where each indicator sits against its thresholds.
Monthly for most data, weekly or daily for claims, yields and spreads