Regime History

Methodology (engine 3.0.0)

30 economic indicators are grouped into six pillars: Growth, Labor, Inflation, Policy, Risk and Liquidity. Each pillar is scored from how many of its indicators are green, amber or red against their thresholds. Two combined scores decide most readings. Activity combines Growth (65%) and Labor (35%). Financial stress combines Risk (60%) and Liquidity (40%). Stagflation does not use the activity number: it reads the three pillars directly. Checked in order, first match wins: Crisis: Financial stress at or below -0.40 with the market crisis signal active the same day; Stagflation: Core PCE at least 4% and Inflation Rising, with Growth Slowing and Labor Weakening; Contraction: Activity at or below -0.25; Slowdown: Activity below 0.15; Expansion: Activity at or above 0.15 and none of the above. A new phase becomes official only after the rule has produced it on 5 business days in a row. The day count runs from the day it became official. Two warnings can sit on top of a phase without changing it. Very high inflation: the inflation condition above is met, but growth or labor is not weak enough for Stagflation. Crisis watch: financial stress is severe, but the market signal has not confirmed it. Interest-rate policy never decides the phase. It only adds "with policy headwinds" or "with policy tailwinds" to the name.